Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/23/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Ty Blach - Rockies

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox square off in the second game of their interleague series on July 23, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies are struggling this season with a dismal 37-64 record, while the Red Sox have managed an impressive 53-46 record, sitting well above .500.

Both teams are relying on some of their least effective pitchers, with Ty Blach taking the mound for Colorado and Cooper Criswell for Boston. Blach, a lefty, ranks among the worst starting pitchers in MLB, according to advanced stats, and has a 5.46 ERA and 4.67 xFIP, suggesting he's been slightly unlucky. Criswell is also not faring much better, with a 4.03 ERA this season. His projections indicate he's likely to allow several runs and hits, a scenario that could prove challenging at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast one of the league's top lineups. Ranked 6th, their offense shines with a strong team batting average (4th) and power numbers (8th in home runs). Jarren Duran has been particularly hot over the last week, with a .389 batting average and 2 home runs, contributing significantly to Boston’s run production.

The Rockies, with a mid-tier offense (16th), have been led by Jake Cave recently. Cave has a .286 average and a 1.018 OPS in the last week, showing a spark in an otherwise average lineup. However, Colorado’s bullpen, ranked 21st, and Boston’s, even worse at 25th, might be the game’s pivotal point, especially given the high Game Total of 10.5 runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox are favored with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than their implied probability of 59%. Given their offensive prowess and Colorado's struggles, Boston appears to have the upper hand in this matchup. Expect a high-scoring game with both teams leaning heavily on their offenses to secure a win.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Over his previous 3 outings, Cooper Criswell has experienced a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2051 rpm over the entire season to 1993 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Rafael Devers will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Boston Red Sox will record 6.84 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ty Blach to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Michael Toglia has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 47.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 34.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 away games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6.84 vs Colorado Rockies 6.01

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