Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 4/25/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Anderson - Red Sox
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
• Run Line: Red Sox 1.5 -155, Guardians -1.5 135
• Money Line: Red Sox 135, Guardians -155
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 41%
• Cleveland Guardians - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 39.86%
• Cleveland Guardians - 60.14%

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field on April 25, 2024. The Guardians, with a strong record of 17-7 this season, are having a great campaign, while the Red Sox hold a solid record of 14-11.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Triston McKenzie. McKenzie has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.00. Although his ERA is below average, his 6.72 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward.

Opposing McKenzie will be the Red Sox's right-handed pitcher Chase Anderson. Anderson, who has also made six appearances out of the bullpen, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.77 this season. However, his 4.27 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

The Guardians' offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season, demonstrating their underlying talent. However, they have struggled in the power department, ranking last in team home runs. On the other hand, the Red Sox have a potent offense, ranking 18th overall but excelling in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Guardians are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% chance of victory. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Guardians as big favorites with a 60% win probability.

The Guardians' best hitter this season has been a standout performer, while the Red Sox have relied on their own offensive star. In the past seven games, the Guardians' top hitter has been Will Brennan, while the Red Sox have seen impressive performances from Wilyer Abreu.

With the Guardians' strong record and home-field advantage, they enter the game as the favorites. However, the Red Sox's potent offense and the performance of Chase Anderson could pose challenges for the Guardians' pitching staff. It promises to be an exciting game with playoff implications on the line.

The Game Total for today's matchup is currently set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. Based on the current odds, the Guardians have an average implied team total of 4.08 runs, while the Red Sox have a relatively low implied team total of 3.42 runs.

As the game unfolds, we will see if the Guardians' strong season continues or if the Red Sox can capitalize on their offensive firepower. It's a matchup that fans and sports bettors alike won't want to miss.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Chase Anderson has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the majors on balls in play since the start of last season with a .272 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Dalbec in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tallying 78.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Triston McKenzie checks in at the 6th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Jose Ramirez will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Brayan Bello) in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+6.03 Units / 9% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction: Red Sox 3.49 - Guardians 4.11

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.