Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 6/21/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds host the Boston Red Sox on June 21, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the first game of an intriguing interleague matchup. Despite the Reds' below-average season, with a 35-39 record, and the Red Sox's above-average 40-35 record, the game promises to be competitive. Both teams are projected to score 4.50 runs, and the betting markets reflect a close contest with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

On the mound, Cincinnati will start left-hander Andrew Abbott, who carries a 3.42 ERA over 14 starts, despite a less favorable 4.75 xFIP indicating he’s been a bit fortunate this season. Abbott's 5-6 record isn't spectacular, but his ERA suggests he’s capable of delivering quality innings. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in MLB in team batting average and 10th in home runs, making for a challenging outing. Notably, Abbott has a low strikeout rate (18.3 K%), but he might find some success against the Red Sox, who have the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB.

The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Kutter Crawford, who sports a solid 3.54 ERA over 15 starts, though his 3-6 record is less impressive. Crawford, ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, matches up against a Reds offense that has struggled, ranking 27th in team batting average and 19th in home runs. However, Cincinnati leads MLB in stolen bases, showcasing a different offensive dimension.

Cincinnati's bullpen, ranked 19th, contrasts with Boston's 27th-ranked bullpen, suggesting a slight edge for the Reds in late-game situations. Offensively, the Reds have been sparked recently by Elly De La Cruz, who has excelled over the last week with a .333 batting average and 1.176 OPS. Meanwhile, Boston’s Ceddanne Rafaela has been on fire, boasting a .632 batting average and 1.545 OPS over his last five games.

Both teams come into this interleague clash with different strengths and weaknesses, making for an evenly matched and exciting game. With both starting pitchers having average projections for innings, hits, and strikeouts, the game may very well come down to which bullpen can better handle the pressure.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Over his previous 3 games started, Kutter Crawford has seen a notable spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2482 rpm over the whole season to 2532 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Extreme flyball hitters like Romy Gonzalez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Stuart Fairchild is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.10 Units / 49% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.16 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.95

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