Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/6/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Jake Woodford - White Sox

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On June 6, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. This American League matchup features the struggling White Sox, who hold a disappointing 15-47 record this season, while the Red Sox have performed averagely with a 31-31 record.

Taking the mound for the White Sox is right-handed pitcher Jake Woodford, who has had a rough season thus far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Woodford is ranked #288 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in MLB. He has started one game this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.23. However, his 4.61 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

Opposing Woodford will be Tanner Houck, the Red Sox's right-handed pitcher. Houck has been impressive this season, ranking #28 in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 12 games, boasting a 5-5 record and an excellent ERA of 1.85. However, his 2.88 xFIP indicates that he may be due for some regression going forward.

In terms of offensive production, the White Sox have struggled this season, ranking as the worst team in MLB. Their offense ranks 30th in the league, both in overall performance and in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Red Sox have a much stronger offense, ranking 10th overall and 3rd in team batting average.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers and the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Red Sox enter this game as the clear favorites. The White Sox will need to overcome their offensive struggles and hope for a standout performance from Woodford to have a chance against the Red Sox's strong lineup.

With a moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%, the White Sox are considered underdogs in this game. Conversely, the Red Sox are heavily favored with a moneyline of -225 and an implied win probability of 67%.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, projects a low-scoring game with a Game Total of 8.5 runs. The White Sox have a low implied team total of 3.43 runs, while the Red Sox have a high implied team total of 5.07 runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 9% more often this year (69.5%) than he did last year (60.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

David Hamilton has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .233 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .119 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jake Woodford's 91.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 22nd percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Luis Robert, Korey Lee).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 52 games (+6.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.35 Units / 46% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.2 vs Chicago White Sox 3.57

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.