Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/20/2025

The Boston Red Sox came out of the All-Star break on a 10-game winning streak. But that winning streak is ancient history thanks to the Chicago Cubs. Chicago has beaten Boston twice in a row this weekend and the Red Sox are now just hoping to salvage a game from this three-game series. Continue reading to get my analysis of this Sunday afternoon matchup, including my Red Sox vs Cubs prediction for their series finale.

Our Red Sox vs Cubs Pick

  • Pick: Boston moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs
  • Date & Time: Sunday, July 20, 2025, at 2:20 PM ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs Cade Horton
  • Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
  • Broadcast: NESN and Marquee Sports Network

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Garrett Crochet has been outstanding this season. He is 10-4 with a 2.23 ERA and he leads the league in strikeouts with 160 on the year. Cade Horton will make the start for the Cubs. Horton is 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA this season. The Red Sox certainly have the advantage in the starting pitching department going into this game.

Bullpen usage

Both bullpens are very similar statistically this season. Their ERAs are nearly identical but the Cubs have been much better through two games in this series. Chicago has allowed just one total run over the first two games of this series. The ability of their bullpen to keep Boston’s bats at bay has been a key to their team’s success.

Recent team streaks

  • Boston has lost two straight games coming out of the All-Star break.
  • Chicago has won four games in a row and is now 20 games above .500.

Best Player Props

PlayerHome runsStrikeoutsTotal bases
Michael BuschN/AN/AOver 1.5
Ceddanne RafaelaOver 0.5N/AOver 1.5
Garrett CrochetN/AOver 6.5N/A
  • The Cubs are 2-0 against the Red Sox so far this season.
  • Chicago has outscored Boston 10-1 through the first two games of this series.
  • Chicago is 32-16 and has won two-thirds of their games at home this season.

Red Sox vs Cubs Model Projection

Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Cubs 4

Win Probability: Red Sox 58%, Cubs 42%

Final Thoughts

Chicago has certainly been the better team through the first two games of this series. But Crochet being on the mound for the Sox today should give them the upper hand. I expect the Red Sox to salvage a game out of this series behind a strong pitching performance from their starter. I’ll back the Sox as a slight moneyline favorite.


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Home MLB Picks Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/20/2025