Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox on August 18, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams vying for playoff positioning in the American League East. The Orioles currently stand at 72-52, showcasing a strong season, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 65-57, managing an above-average campaign. This matchup is particularly significant as the Orioles aim to solidify their lead in the division.

In their last outing, the Red Sox demonstrated resilience and grabbed a 5-1 win, showcasing the competitive nature of this series. The Orioles are projected to start Albert Suarez, who has struggled with a 4.62 xFIP, suggesting he may have benefited from some luck this season. Suarez's season record stands at 5-4 with a solid 3.39 ERA, but he is projected to allow 2.9 earned runs today, which could be a concern against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Kutter Crawford will take the mound for Boston, boasting a more favorable ranking as the #66 best starting pitcher in MLB this year. However, with an ERA of 4.17 and a high flyball rate of 44%, he may face challenges against an Orioles offense that ranks 1st in home runs, having hit a remarkable 157 this season.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles are favored with an implied team total of 4.81 runs, while the projections suggest they could score an impressive 5.32 runs on average in this matchup. The Orioles' bats, highlighted by Gunnar Henderson's recent surge, could capitalize on Crawford's tendencies, making this game critical for both teams as they continue their push toward the postseason.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2553 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2499 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Tyler O'Neill has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has averaged 14.8 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball bats like Ramon Urias are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 77 games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 64 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games at home (+18.30 Units / 73% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.2 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.23

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.