Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Boston Red Sox on August 16, 2024, they do so with momentum, having secured a 5-1 victory against Boston just a day earlier. The Orioles, sitting at 72-50, are enjoying a stellar season and currently maintain a strong grip on their division. On the other hand, the Red Sox, while competitive at 63-57, find themselves struggling to keep pace.

On the mound, the Orioles will feature Corbin Burnes, who ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Burnes has showcased his skill with an impressive 12-4 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.71 this season, although projections indicate he may be due for a slight regression. He is expected to go about 5.8 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters, which bodes well against a Boston lineup that will face a tough challenge.

The Red Sox will counter with Cooper Criswell, a right-hander whose performance has been inconsistent this season, reflected in his 4.02 ERA. However, Criswell's high groundball rate might provide him some protection against the Orioles' potent offense, ranked 1st in MLB for home runs this season with 157. That said, the projections lean heavily in favor of the Orioles, who are expected to score an impressive 5.47 runs on average in this matchup.

With the Orioles positioned as strong betting favorites, their track record and recent success suggest they are well-equipped to build on their victory over Boston. The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game, but the Orioles’ offensive firepower could tilt the scales significantly in their favor.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

As a result of his large platoon split, Cooper Criswell will have a tough matchup being matched up with 7 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Wilyer Abreu has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 96.8-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has compiled a 13% Swinging Strike% this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 33.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 23.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 9.5% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles makes them the #3 team in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 121 games (+17.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+16.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 28 games (+21.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.18 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.58

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.