Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 8/25/2025
The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will face off Monday night at Camden Yards. Boston enters this series opener as the top Wild Card team in the American League. They will look to get another win over a division opponent after winning a series against the rival Yankees over the weekend. Before the action begins in Baltimore, continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Orioles prediction.
Our Red Sox vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Monday, August 25, 2025, 6:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brennan Bernardino vs Tomoyuki Sugano
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: MASN and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Boston is going with Brennan Bernardino out of the bullpen to begin this contest. Bernardino isn’t going to go deep into this game and it will be up to the Boston bullpen to get them across the finish line in this matchup. Baltimore will turn to Tomoyuki Sugano on the bump. He enters this game with a 10-5 record and 3.97 ERA. His consistency gives Baltimore a solid foundation on the mound.
Recent team streaks
The Red Sox won three out of four games against the Yankees in their most recent series. Boston won the first three games of that four-game set before losing the final game on Sunday night. The Orioles lost three out of four games to the Houston Astros over the weekend. But they won the final game of that series with Trevor Rogers on the mound and will look to build on that win here.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Baltimore holds a 5-4 lead in their season series against the Red Sox this year.
- Baltimore has won four straight games against Boston coming into this matchup.
- Boston is 30-35 on the road to this point in the 2025 season.
- Baltimore is 31-33 at home in 2025.
Red Sox vs Orioles Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 5 – Red Sox 4
Win Probability: Orioles 52%, Red Sox 48%
Final Thoughts
The Orioles’ starting pitching edge could be what ultimately decides this game. Sugano is solid on the hill and he should outperform the combination of relief pitchers that the Red Sox put out there today. Boston should regain the upper hand later in this series when they have their starting rotation back on track. But I’ll go with the Orioles to win this game thanks to their stability on the mound.
