Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/31/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on May 31, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their underwhelming seasons. The Braves sit at 26-30, while the Red Sox are slightly better at 28-31. This matchup marks the second game in their series, and both teams are eager to gain momentum. In their previous game, the Braves narrowly lost, adding pressure to perform at home.

The Braves are projected to start Spencer Schwellenbach, who has had a solid season despite the team's struggles. With a Win/Loss record of 3-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.42, Schwellenbach ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters. However, he also has concerning projections, allowing an average of 5.5 hits and 1.1 walks.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Walker Buehler, who has a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and a 3.95 ERA. While Buehler has been effective, his 4.46 FIP indicates he may have been fortunate this season, and he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs in 5.0 innings. His strikeout rate of 4.0 is below average, which could be a concern against a Braves offense that ranks 15th overall.

The Braves' offense has been average this season, ranking 15th in MLB, while the Red Sox boast a much stronger lineup, sitting 6th overall. With the Braves favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs, they will need to capitalize on their home advantage and leverage Schwellenbach's potential to secure a win against a tough Red Sox lineup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler has utilized his curveball 6.5% less often this season (12.7%) than he did last year (19.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Carlos Narvaez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 104.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach's fastball velocity of 96.1 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.80 Units / 98% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.32, Atlanta Braves 5.14

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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