Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Boston Red Sox at Truist Park in what marks the third game of their series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Braves sitting at 27-30 and the Red Sox slightly ahead at 28-32. This Interleague matchup is crucial for both squads as they look to improve their standings in a tightly contested environment.

In their previous game, the Braves got a win and will look for a second straight today. Bryce Elder is set to take the mound for Atlanta. He has had mixed results this season, posting a 2-2 record and an ERA of 4.50. The projections suggest he is likely to perform better than his current stats indicate, as his xFIP of 3.79 projects a more favorable outcome, although his strikeout rate remains low at 18.2%.

On the other hand, Garrett Crochet is expected to pitch for the Red Sox. Standing out this year, he boasts an impressive 4-4 record with a remarkable ERA of 2.04. While his numbers shine brightly, projections indicate he may regress slightly in the games ahead.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th in MLB, while the Red Sox are 6th, highlighting the disparity in their hitting capabilities this season. The Red Sox's lineup features some potent hitters, which could pose a significant challenge for Elder, who has shown vulnerability to powerful offenses.

Betting markets currently reflect a close contest, with the Braves' moneyline at +115 and the Red Sox at -135. The game total is set at a standard 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead. As both teams try to find their footing, this game offers a pivotal moment to shift their momentum.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average hurler, Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Wilyer Abreu has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 15.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (49.7% vs. 44.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt Olson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 71% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.77, Atlanta Braves 4.22

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

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