Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 6/18/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox square off on June 18, 2024, at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The game marks the second in the series, with the Red Sox currently holding a slim edge in the standings. Boston, boasting a 38-35 record, is having an above-average season, while Toronto sits at 35-37, making for an average campaign so far.

Chris Bassitt is slated to start for the Blue Jays, bringing a solid track record to the mound. Bassitt, a right-hander, has a 6-6 Win/Loss record and a respectable 3.56 ERA over 14 starts this season. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit lucky and could see some regression. Even so, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Bassitt to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 6.3 batters on average, which bodes well for Toronto.

On the other side, the Red Sox counter with Tanner Houck, who has been exceptional this year. Houck, also a right-hander, has a 7-5 record with an impressive 2.08 ERA. His xFIP of 2.86 indicates some luck as well, but not to the same extent as Bassitt. Houck is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 5.4 batters.

Toronto's offense ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling in most metrics, including team batting average and home runs. Conversely, Boston's offense ranks 8th overall, supported by a 6th-best team batting average and 5th-best in stolen bases. This offensive disparity could be a key factor, especially since Tanner Houck's ground-ball tendencies might neutralize Toronto's lack of power.

Both teams' bullpens have had their issues, with Toronto's ranked 20th and Boston's a dismal 29th in the Power Rankings. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a closely contested game. Betting markets favor Boston slightly with an implied win probability of 51% compared to Toronto’s 49%, reflecting the tight nature of this matchup.

In their most recent outings, Ceddanne Rafaela has been a standout for Boston, hitting .520 with a 1.276 OPS over the last week, while Ernie Clement has been Toronto's best hitter, boasting a .692 average and 1.846 OPS. Given these factors, Boston appears to have a slight edge, but with both teams evenly matched in many areas, this game could easily go either way.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 26.39 ft/sec to 27.31 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Toronto Blue Jays bats as a group have been one of the worst in MLB since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 71 games (+6.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.19 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.11

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