Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Prediction For 8/4/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On August 4, 2024, the Texas Rangers will host the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Field for the third game in their ongoing series. The Rangers are currently struggling with a record of 53-58, indicating a below-average season, while the Red Sox sit in a stronger position at 58-51, showcasing an above-average performance.

In their last outing, the Rangers did defeat the Red Sox. If they want to do it again on Sunday, Texas will need to neutralize the exceptional play of Rafael Devers, who has been on fire recently. Devers has racked up 12 hits and 6 RBIs over the last week, boasting a remarkable .462 batting average and a 1.481 OPS. This offensive prowess is crucial as the Red Sox’s offense ranks 3rd in MLB, while the Rangers’ offense struggles at 23rd.

On the mound, the Rangers are set to start Nathan Eovaldi, who has been solid this season with an 8-4 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA. However, his 3.92 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and the projections indicate he could regress. Eovaldi is projected to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters.

Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Red Sox. With a 5-7 record and a 4.47 ERA, he has been average but has the potential to improve, as indicated by his favorable 3.30 xFIP. Pivetta's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs with 5.8 strikeouts.

Betting markets reflect the competitive nature of this matchup, with the Rangers currently favored at -130 and an implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Red Sox are at +110 with an implied total of 3.81 runs. Given the strength of the Red Sox's lineup, they may have the edge in this clash.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta's slider percentage has spiked by 11.9% from last year to this one (17.4% to 29.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 82nd percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Jung has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.1 vs Texas Rangers 4.73

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