Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Pick For 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight battle in the American League East. The Red Sox, sitting at 75-76, are just ahead of the 74-77 Rays in the standings, reflecting their average seasons. This game represents the second matchup in this series, with the Rays looking to build on yesterday's 8-3 win over Boston.

On the mound, Ryan Pepiot will take the hill for the Rays, bringing an 8-6 record and a solid 3.76 ERA. Although he's ranked 54th among starting pitchers, Pepiot's projections suggest he'll pitch about 5.2 innings and allow roughly 2.3 earned runs today. However, his troubling stats show an average of 4.3 hits and 1.5 walks allowed, raising concerns against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Facing him will be Tanner Houck, who has a slightly better record of 8-10 and an impressive 3.24 ERA, ranking 33rd among pitchers. Houck has been consistent lately and is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing just 1.9 runs, which could serve the Red Sox well given their 6th-ranked offense. Despite a recent slump, Danny Jansen has been the team's best hitter, recording strong numbers over the past week.

The projections favor the Red Sox with a 53% chance of winning compared to the Rays' 47%, indicating there may be value in betting on Boston, particularly considering the Rays have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup where pitching could make the difference.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 7.4% more often this year (67.9%) than he did last season (60.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Triston Casas has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 103-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and compiled 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 133 games (+16.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.04 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.62

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