Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 5/19/2024

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup on May 19, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals, having a bad season with a record of 20-25, will face off against the Boston Red Sox, who are having a below-average season with a record of 22-24. The game will be played at Busch Stadium, with the Cardinals as the home team. The Cardinals will be looking to improve their performance and turn the season around against the Red Sox.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has been having an average season with an ERA of 4.56. Liberatore has started 2 games and made 15 appearances out of the bullpen this year, with a Win/Loss record of 1-1. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Liberatore ranks as the #247 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is one of the worst pitchers in the league.

On the other hand, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who has been performing above average with an ERA of 3.48. Pivetta has started 4 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 1-2. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pivetta ranks as the #75 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is an above-average pitcher.

The Cardinals offense ranks as the #22 best in MLB this season, with a good team batting average and a great team home run ranking. However, their stolen bases ranking is below average. The Red Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #9 best in MLB, with a great team batting average and an average team home run ranking.

Overall, this game features a matchup between two teams having below-average seasons. The Cardinals will be relying on Matthew Liberatore to bounce back, while the Red Sox will look to Nick Pivetta to continue his solid performance. With both teams having similar implied probabilities of winning, this should be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jarren Duran's footspeed has decreased this season. His 29.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.05 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Matthew Liberatore to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 12.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 27.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.54 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.37

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