Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 5/18/2024

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 18, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Busch Stadium. As the home team, the Cardinals will look to turn their struggling season around against the Red Sox, who have been performing at an average level. This game is part of an Interleague matchup, adding an extra layer of excitement for fans.

The Cardinals currently hold a disappointing 19-25 record this season, indicating a tough year for the team. On the other hand, the Red Sox have a slightly better record of 22-23, suggesting an average performance. Despite their struggles, the Cardinals have shown promise in certain areas. They rank 7th in team batting average and 5th in team home runs, highlighting their offensive capabilities.

Miles Mikolas is projected to start on the mound for the Cardinals. Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher, has had a challenging season with a 3-5 win/loss record and a high 6.19 ERA. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky, and his performance may improve going forward. Kutter Crawford is expected to start for the Red Sox. As the #64 best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crawford has a solid 2.24 ERA but a higher xFIP, indicating potential regression.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank 27th in MLB, while the Red Sox sit at 11th. However, the Cardinals have shown strength in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th, respectively. The Red Sox, on the other hand, excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd. Both teams have an average ranking in terms of stolen bases.

When it comes to bullpens, the Cardinals have the 4th best bullpen according to our power rankings, while the Red Sox rank 21st. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to the current odds, the Cardinals are the underdogs with a +100 moneyline, suggesting a 48% win probability. The Red Sox are favored with a -120 moneyline, indicating a 52% win probability. This implies a close game where either team could come out on top.

With the Cardinals looking to improve their season and the Red Sox aiming to maintain their average performance, this game promises an exciting matchup. The Cardinals' powerful offense, led by their best hitter Alec Burleson, will go up against Kutter Crawford, a high-flyball pitcher. The outcome of this game will depend on how the Cardinals' power hitters can capitalize on Crawford's pitching style.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler O'Neill has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's slider rate has risen by 6% from last season to this one (24.3% to 30.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Matt Carpenter's quickness has dropped off this season. His 25.32 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.73 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.61 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.28

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