Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick & Prediction – 4/21/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
• Run Line: Red Sox 1.5 -165, Pirates -1.5 140
• Money Line: Red Sox 125, Pirates -145
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 43%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 45.01%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54.99%

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park on April 21, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 11-10, are having an above-average season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 12-10, are also performing well. As the home team, the Pirates will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Perez has been solid this season, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an excellent ERA of 2.55. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Perez is ranked as the #196 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is one of the worst pitchers in the league. His 4.42 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, will start right-handed pitcher Josh Winckowski. Winckowski has a win/loss record of 1-1 and an average ERA of 4.63. According to our projections, he is an average pitcher. His 3.57 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Pirates rank 19th in MLB, while the Red Sox rank 18th. The Red Sox have a strong batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, but both teams have an average ranking in terms of overall offensive talent. The Pirates have a slight edge in stolen bases, ranking 12th compared to the Red Sox's 16th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Pirates have the advantage, ranking 3rd in MLB, while the Red Sox rank 20th. The Pirates' bullpen has been performing exceptionally well this season, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, giving them a 57% implied win probability. The Red Sox, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, with a 43% implied win probability.

With both teams having above-average seasons and the Pirates having the advantage of playing at home, this promises to be an exciting game. The pitching matchup between Perez and Winckowski adds another layer of intrigue. Will the Pirates' offense be able to overcome Perez's peripheral indicators, or will the Red Sox find success against Winckowski? Only time will tell as these two teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering the 1.76 difference between Josh Winckowski's 9.28 K/9 and his 7.52 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and should negatively regress the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Connor Wong has been hot in recent games, cracking 2 long-balls in the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Oneil Cruz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Josh Winckowski.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 4th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 85 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction: Red Sox 3.86 - Pirates 4.04

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