Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bet – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 14, 2024, the stakes remain high in this classic rivalry. The Yankees, sitting at 86-62, are enjoying a strong season and are in a solid position as they vie for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a record of 74-74, have struggled to find consistency throughout the year.

In their last game, the Yankees faced the Red Sox and came away with a victory, further solidifying their position in the standings. The Yankees will send out ace Gerrit Cole, projected to pitch 5.8 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs allowed. His 3.36 ERA this season is impressive, and he boasts a strong strikeout rate of 26.9%, which could pose challenges for a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, the Red Sox will counter with Brayan Bello, who has had a decent season with a record of 13-7 and a 4.70 ERA. However, Bello's projections suggest he may struggle today, with an expected average of 2.8 earned runs and a higher rate of 5.1 hits allowed. With the Yankees' potent offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB and leads the league in home runs, Bello will need to be at his best to keep the game competitive.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, indicates that the Yankees are favored to win with a projected team total of 5.14 runs compared to the Red Sox's 4.23 runs. This matchup highlights the Yankees' advantage in both pitching and offensive firepower, positioning them as clear favorites in this matchup. With the Yankees looking to maintain their momentum and the Red Sox seeking to disrupt their rhythm, fans can expect an exciting game at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Tyler O'Neill has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Boston Red Sox hitters as a unit grade out 7th- in the game for power this year when using their 9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Gerrit Cole's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (54% vs. 47% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.21 vs New York Yankees 5.28

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.