Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bet – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on September 13, 2024, the stakes are high in this classic rivalry, particularly with the Yankees currently in contention for a playoff spot. The Yankees sit at 85-62, enjoying a strong season, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 74-73. The Yankees have been on a roll, and in their last game, they were victorious, continuing their momentum in this crucial stretch.

On the mound, Clarke Schmidt is set to start for the Yankees. He has been effective this year with a 2.34 ERA, ranking as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his 3.79 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could see a regression in performance. Schmidt will face Tanner Houck, who has also had a solid season, holding a 3.24 ERA and ranking 33rd among pitchers. Houck's high groundball rate could be a factor against a Yankees offense that leads the league in home runs but struggles with ground balls.

The Yankees' offense is ranked 2nd in MLB, showcasing their explosive potential, while the Red Sox are not far behind at 6th. However, Boston's lineup has struck out the 3rd most times this season, which could pose problems against Schmidt's strikeout ability, as he boasts a 26.1 K%.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Yankees favored at -145, this matchup promises to be a compelling clash of strengths and weaknesses. The projections suggest the Yankees may be poised to capitalize on their offensive prowess, making them a strong bet to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has used his off-speed and breaking balls 7.4% more often this year (67.9%) than he did last year (60.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.5% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+16.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 away games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.3 vs New York Yankees 4.82

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