Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bet – 7/7/2024

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox face off on July 7, 2024, in the third game of their American League East series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, currently leading the division with a 55-36 record, are having a stellar season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, at 48-40, are having an above-average year but remain in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. In their last game, Boston played the Toronto Blue Jays, while New York took on the Baltimore Orioles.

Luis Gil will take the mound for the Yankees, bringing his impressive 9-4 record and 3.41 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gil’s 4.26 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year and could see regression. However, Gil’s high strikeout rate (27.4 K%) should play well against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for most strikeouts. Gil is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 6.4 batters, but giving up 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks.

The Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford, who has a 4-7 record and a 3.42 ERA. Crawford’s 3.99 xFIP also hints at potential regression. He’s a high-flyball pitcher, a concerning trait against a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB with 127 home runs. Crawford is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 4.6 hits, 1.7 walks, and striking out 5.0 batters.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, ranking 10th in batting average and 2nd in home runs. Ben Rice has been a standout, hitting .333 with a 1.440 OPS over the last week. The Red Sox offense, ranked 7th overall, is no slouch either, with Rafael Devers hitting .333 and posting a 1.115 OPS over the same period.

Both bullpens have struggled, with the Yankees ranked 20th and the Red Sox 23rd in the Power Rankings. The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup between these historic rivals.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Connor Wong has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .316 mark is inflated compared to his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Luis Gil encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees bats collectively grade out in baseball for power this year when using their 10.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.35 vs New York Yankees 5.29

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