Boston Red Sox at New York Mets Pick & Prediction – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 3, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position with a record of 74-64, sitting above .500. In contrast, the Red Sox are treading water at 70-68, showcasing an average season. This game marks the second in a series that could impact the standings as both teams aim to secure their place in the Wild Card race.

In their recent outing, the Mets last played the Red Sox, showcasing a solid performance in a 4-1 win over Boston. David Peterson, slated to take the mound for the Mets, has been a bright spot this season with an impressive ERA of 2.83. Despite being ranked as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his low strikeout rate might benefit him against a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup. Peterson's projected average of 5.2 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed gives the Mets a fighting chance.

On the other hand, Kutter Crawford is set to start for the Red Sox. Despite his 4.12 ERA and 28 starts this season, Crawford's peripherals suggest he has been lucky, and he faces a powerful Mets offense that ranks 4th in MLB in home runs. The Mets have hit 132 home runs this year, and with Crawford's flyball tendencies (45 FB%), they could capitalize on that weakness.

The Mets' offense is ranked 10th overall, while the Red Sox sit at 5th, making this matchup intriguing. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, but with the Mets’ power and Crawford’s vulnerabilities, they could exceed expectations. The Mets' current moneyline of -130 reflects their position as slight favorites, suggesting that oddsmakers see potential for them to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kutter Crawford is projected to throw 82 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Extreme groundball batters like Danny Jansen are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. David Peterson has gone to his secondary offerings 5% less often this year (42.7%) than he did last season (47.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Starling Marte is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 38 games at home (+14.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 away games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.11 vs New York Mets 4.28

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