Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 8/6/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox on August 6, 2024, in a pivotal matchup that continues their three-game series. The Royals currently sit at 63-51, enjoying a solid season, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 60-51. Both teams are jockeying for position in a competitive field, with the Royals' offense ranking 12th in MLB, compared to the Red Sox's impressive 3rd best overall.

In yesterday's game, the Red Sox got a win over the Royals to open their series, showcasing their depth and resilience. For today's game, Kansas City will turn to Seth Lugo, who boasts a sharp 2.57 ERA and a 13-5 record this year. Lugo, ranked 83rd among MLB starting pitchers, is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings while allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, though he may be due for a regression given his xFIP of 3.80, suggesting he’s been a bit fortunate.

On the mound for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who sports a 5.13 ERA and a 10-5 record. Despite his struggles, he’s ranked 60th among starting pitchers and projected to allow slightly fewer earned runs than Lugo. However, Bello's xFIP of 3.73 hints at potential improvement, suggesting he might be closer to his true talent level as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Royals rely heavily on Michael Massey, who has been their hottest hitter recently with a .357 batting average and 1.257 OPS over the last week. Conversely, Rafael Devers has been an enormous asset for the Red Sox, contributing significantly to their run total with his .429 batting average.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs, the sportsbooks have the Royals' moneyline at -135, reflecting their status as slight favorites. The implications of this game are significant; a win means keeping pace at the top of the division, while a loss could see momentum swing in favor of the Red Sox.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.3% vs. 43.1% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Tyler O'Neill has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .377 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Michael Massey is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

As a team, Kansas City Royals batters have done poorly as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 3rd-worst in the majors.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+14.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+17.80 Units / 297% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.97 vs Kansas City Royals 4.78

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