Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in solid positions within the American League. The Astros currently hold a record of 67-56, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 65-58. This matchup marks the first game of a pivotal series for both teams as they look to solidify their standings.

In their most recent outings, the Astros got a win over the Chicago White Sox while the Red Sox suffered a loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's Masataka Yoshida has been on fire, boasting a .500 batting average over the past week, providing a significant boost to their offense. Despite this, the Red Sox rank 3rd in MLB offensively, which puts pressure on the Astros' pitching staff.

Projected starters Yusei Kikuchi and Tanner Houck present an intriguing contrast. Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher, has had an up-and-down season with a 6-9 record and a 4.49 ERA, but he has been unlucky, as indicated by his 3.35 xFIP, which suggests he could improve. He is known for his high strikeout rate, facing a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other hand, Tanner Houck, with a solid 3.01 ERA and a 8-8 record, is having a good year, but he might be due for regression as his 3.58 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate. Both pitchers are projected to allow a similar number of earned runs today, but Houck is expected to pitch longer, which could benefit the Red Sox.

The Astros' offense, ranked 11th overall and 2nd in batting average, will look to capitalize on Houck's weaknesses. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, it’s expected to be a close contest. The Astros hold a slight edge with a -125 moneyline, implying they are favored to win, but the matchup is tight enough to keep bettors on their toes.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last game started, Tanner Houck was firing on all cylinders and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler O'Neill has had some very good luck this year. His .377 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 squad in the league this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Recording 92.9 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Yusei Kikuchi checks in at the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Over the past 7 days, Victor Caratini's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+15.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.15 vs Houston Astros 4.19

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