Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Best Bet – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on August 21, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams vying for playoff positioning. Currently, the Astros sit at 68-57, while the Red Sox are close behind at 66-59. Both teams are having above-average seasons, making this series a crucial one for their postseason aspirations.

In their last game, the the Red Sox came away with a 6-5 win over the Astros, setting the stage for an interesting game today. As they prepare for this matchup, the Astros are projected to start Justin Verlander, who has had a mixed season with a 3-2 record and an ERA of 3.95. Despite being ranked as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB, Verlander’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year. He projects to pitch approximately 4.4 innings today, allowing 1.9 earned runs and striking out an average of 4.9 batters.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Cooper Criswell, who has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. Criswell’s average ERA of 4.56 doesn’t inspire confidence, especially considering his projections of allowing 2.7 earned runs over 5.3 innings. With the Astros' offense ranked 11th overall and boasting the 2nd best batting average in MLB, they could capitalize on Criswell’s weaknesses.

The Astros’ bullpen is rated as the 5th best in MLB, providing a solid safety net for Verlander, while the Red Sox bullpen sits at a mediocre 15th. Given the Astros’ offensive prowess and the current form of both starting pitchers, they enter this game as the betting favorites, with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs. This matchup could tilt in favor of the Astros if Verlander can navigate the Red Sox lineup effectively while their offense takes advantage of Criswell’s vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Generating 13.7 outs per outing this year on average, Cooper Criswell falls in the 4th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Boston Red Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander's slider percentage has dropped by 6.3% from last year to this one (25.3% to 19%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Trey Cabbage has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (38.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cooper Criswell is a pitch-to-contact type (1st percentile K%) — great news for Cabbage.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen projects as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+17.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 57 games (+17.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 42 games (+22.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.93 vs Houston Astros 4.81

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