Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on September 1, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League matchup. Both teams are in the thick of an average season, with the Tigers holding a record of 69-68 and the Red Sox slightly ahead at 70-66. In their last encounter, the Tigers edged out the Red Sox with a narrow 2-1 victory, which adds a layer of intensity to this contest.

Detroit will send Beau Brieske to the mound, who has struggled recently, projecting to pitch just 1.2 innings with a concerning average of 0.6 earned runs allowed. His last start was abbreviated, lasting only one inning with two earned runs. On the other side, Boston counters with Cooper Criswell, who has also faced challenges, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs over 4.7 projected innings. Both pitchers are right-handed, and while Brieske's projections suggest a tough outing, Criswell's performance has been rated poorly in advanced stats, making this matchup intriguing.

Offensively, the teams are worlds apart. The Red Sox boast the 4th best offense in MLB, highlighted by Jarren Duran, who has been a force this season with a .295 batting average and 21 home runs. Conversely, the Tigers rank 23rd, struggling to generate consistent offense, which is further evidenced by their low ranking in both batting average and stolen bases.

Despite the Tigers' recent success against the Red Sox, projections indicate a higher likelihood of Boston's offense overpowering Detroit's pitching. The projections suggest that the Red Sox will score an average of 5.39 runs, while the Tigers are projected at 5.13 runs. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be competitive, and bettors may find value in the Red Sox's ability to maintain their offensive prowess against a struggling Tigers pitching staff.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell has recorded 13.5 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 5th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Connor Wong is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.7% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Detroit Tigers have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 60 away games (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+7.30 Units / 52% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.36 vs Detroit Tigers 5.13

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