Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 7/22/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies (36-64) prepare to host the Boston Red Sox (53-45) on July 22, 2024, fans at Coors Field can expect an intriguing matchup. Both teams have shown stark contrasts this season, with the Rockies struggling and the Red Sox performing above average. This game kicks off the first in a series between these Interleague opponents.

The Rockies' dismal season places them near the bottom of their division, while the Red Sox are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, thanks to their solid record. Austin Gomber, a left-hander with a 2-6 record and a 4.61 ERA, is set to start for Colorado. Gomber has not been impressive this year, ranking as the 168th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest a tough outing for Gomber, who is expected to allow 3.3 earned runs over 5.0 innings.

On the other side, Boston will counter with right-hander Tanner Houck, who has been excellent this season. Houck boasts an 8-6 record, a stellar 2.54 ERA, and ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the Power Rankings. Despite Houck's effective performance, his 3.14 xFIP suggests he might not be able to sustain his current level of success. The projections see him allowing 2.9 earned runs over 5.7 innings.

Offensively, the Rockies' bats rank 15th in both overall performance and home runs, with a middling 14th in team batting average. They have struggled on the base paths, ranking 20th in stolen bases. Conversely, the Red Sox have an edge with their 6th-ranked offense, 4th in batting average, and 8th in home runs, complemented by a strong 6th ranking in stolen bases. This discrepancy heavily favors Boston, especially given Coors Field's hitter-friendly environment.

Both bullpens have been lackluster, with the Rockies' bullpen ranking 23rd and the Red Sox's bullpen 24th. This could lead to a high-scoring game, further supported by the game's total set at 10.5 runs. Given these factors, Boston appears to have the upper hand, and the betting odds reflect this; the Red Sox are -175 favorites with a 62% implied win probability, while the Rockies are +155 underdogs with a 38% implied win probability.

All signs point to Boston capitalizing on their favorable matchup and Austin Gomber's struggles. Expect the Red Sox to take advantage of Colorado's weak bullpen and an inconsistent starter to secure the win.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #3 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Over the past week, Tyler O'Neill's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Boston Red Sox will record 6.21 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber has relied on his curveball 5% more often this year (21.8%) than he did last season (16.8%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ryan McMahon has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6.21 vs Colorado Rockies 4.96

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