Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 4/24/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
• Run Line: Red Sox 1.5 -175, Guardians -1.5 155
• Money Line: Red Sox 120, Guardians -140
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 44%
• Cleveland Guardians - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 40.23%
• Cleveland Guardians - 59.77%

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

On April 24, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a record of 17-6, are having a great season and will be playing as the home team, while the Red Sox, with a record of 13-11, are having an above-average season and will be the away team.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who has started four games this year. Carrasco holds a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.44, which is considered great. However, his 4.93 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward.

Opposing Carrasco on the mound will be Cooper Criswell, a right-handed pitcher for the Red Sox. Criswell has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.26, which is average. His 3.67 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in future games.

In terms of offense, the Guardians rank as the 9th best in MLB this season, while the Red Sox rank 16th. The Guardians have a strong batting average, ranking 14th in the league, but struggle in terms of home runs, ranking 30th. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a great team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league.

Both teams have different strengths and weaknesses when it comes to pitching and hitting. Carrasco projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, while Criswell projects to pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. The Guardians have a low-strikeout offense, which may give them an advantage against Criswell, who is a low-strikeout pitcher.

Considering the betting odds, the Guardians are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. The Red Sox are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120, implying a win probability of 44%. The Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.27 runs compared to the Red Sox's 3.73 runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average pitcher, Cooper Criswell has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -23.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco's four-seamer percentage has decreased by 7.3% from last year to this one (31.9% to 24.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Josh Naylor's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 131 games (+11.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction: Red Sox 3.92 - Guardians 4.59

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