Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 17, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League East. The Orioles currently hold a strong record of 72-51, while the Red Sox sit at 64-57. With the Orioles' offense ranking 1st in MLB in home runs and 3rd overall, they are poised to put pressure on the Red Sox pitching staff.

In their last matchup on August 16, the Red Sox triumphed over the Orioles, winning a high-scoring affair by a score of 12-10. This victory not only boosted Boston's confidence but also highlighted the Orioles' struggles on the mound, particularly from Cade Povich, who is projected to start today. Povich has had a rough season, with a 1-5 record and a troubling 6.27 ERA. Although his xERA suggests he may have been unlucky, he faces a challenging Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in MLB.

On the other side, Brayan Bello, with a respectable 10-5 record and a 4.97 ERA, has been more consistent. His last start was impressive, allowing just one earned run over six innings. The projections indicate he may have an edge against the Orioles' powerful offense, which has been known to struggle against high-groundball pitchers like Bello.

Despite the recent loss, the Orioles are favored to win today, with projections suggesting they could score an impressive 5.22 runs on average. This matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is critical for both teams, as they aim to gain momentum in the tightly contested AL East. With the stakes high, fans can expect an exciting game as these two rivals clash once again.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because groundball pitchers hold a significant edge over groundball bats, Brayan Bello and his 51.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today's game squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Ryan O'Hearn has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+19.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 66% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.96 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.22

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