Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 8/15/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On August 15, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox in what promises to be an exciting matchup in the American League East. The Orioles, currently holding a solid 71-50 record, are having a great season and sit firmly in contention for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are performing above average with a 63-56 record but are not in the same position as their rivals.

In their last game, the Orioles played exceptionally well, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB with 157 home runs this season. The projections suggest that this strength could be crucial against Nick Pivetta, who is a high-flyball pitcher. Pivetta's tendency to allow flyballs might play into the Orioles' hands, as their potent lineup could capitalize on this weakness.

Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Orioles, boasting an 8-7 record and a solid ERA of 3.83. His advanced stats indicate that he has been somewhat unlucky this season, with a 3.30 xERA suggesting he could perform even better moving forward. Eflin's low strikeout rate could be a concern, especially against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts. However, this matchup favors Eflin, as the Red Sox's high-strikeout tendency aligns well with his pitching style.

Meanwhile, Pivetta's average ERA of 4.44 and his projection to allow 2.6 earned runs today may not bode well against an Orioles lineup that ranks 4th in overall offensive performance. With the Orioles being favored at -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they appear to have the edge in this series opener.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (92.3 mph) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (93.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Connor Wong has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.1% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Boston Red Sox today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tallying 17.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Zach Eflin checks in at the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ramon Urias has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 87.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.6% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #3 club in the league this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 108 games (+15.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+18.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 19% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.26 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.9

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.