Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 4/24/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on April 24, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their disappointing starts to the season. The Nationals currently sit at 11-13, while the Orioles are struggling even more at 9-14. Both teams are projected to start left-handed pitchers, with MacKenzie Gore taking the mound for Washington and Cade Povich for Baltimore. Notably, Gore is coming off a solid outing, where he showcased his potential as one of the better pitchers in the league, ranking 57th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Gore's statistics this season are impressive, boasting a 3.41 ERA and a low walk rate of 6.7 BB%. However, he faces a challenge against a low-walk Orioles offense, which ranks 5th in the league for fewest walks. This matchup could favor Baltimore, as Gore may struggle to exploit their impatience at the plate. The projections indicate that Gore is expected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters, which highlights his potential to dominate.

On the other hand, Cade Povich has not found his rhythm this season, holding a 6.38 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 0-2. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, but he may struggle against a Nationals offense that ranks 21st in the league overall. Despite their low ranking, the Nationals have shown some power, ranking 16th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases.

With both teams looking to turn their seasons around, this Interleague matchup at Nationals Park could be pivotal. The betting markets reflect the close nature of the contest, with both teams at a moneyline of -110 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs. As the Nationals aim to capitalize on their home-field advantage, fans can expect a competitive game that may hinge on the performances of both starting pitchers.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has relied on his slider 5.4% more often this year (18.4%) than he did last season (13%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Jackson Holliday generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like MacKenzie Gore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (94.7 mph) below where it was last year (95.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Nathaniel Lowe has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Washington Nationals with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.75, Washington Nationals 4.31

• Date: April 24, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

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