Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/7/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles on August 7, 2024, carries significant weight as both teams are vying for position in the American League East. The Blue Jays, currently sitting fourth in the division with a record of 52-61, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles, at 67-47, are performing exceptionally well and sit firmly in contention for a playoff spot.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays came away with a win by neutralizing the potent offense of the Orioles. But as a whole this season, the Blue Jays have struggled, as they look to improve upon a dismal record that includes a ranking of 27th in home runs and stolen bases this season. Their offensive inconsistencies create an uphill battle against the Orioles' 3rd-ranked offense, which leads MLB in home runs.

On the mound, Blue Jays' Bowden Francis, projected to start, has had a rocky season, ranking 238th among MLB starters with a troubling 5.64 ERA. He faces a powerful Orioles lineup that has accumulated 157 home runs this year, which certainly puts him at a disadvantage. On the other side, Trevor Rogers of the Orioles, despite also having a subpar record of 2-10, carries a more respectable 4.76 ERA into this matchup.

The projections suggest that Francis will pitch an average of 5.4 innings while giving up about 3.2 earned runs. However, the Blue Jays' offense, ranking 19th in MLB, will need to find a way to capitalize on potential mistakes to support their pitcher. With both teams boasting players in fine form—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the Blue Jays and Jackson Holliday for the Orioles—this game promises to pack plenty of drama. Given the dynamics, bettors should consider the Orioles' strong offensive capabilities, especially against a pitcher like Francis, who may struggle in this matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Recording 15 outs per outing this year on average, Trevor Rogers ranks in the 25th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 93.4-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Bowden Francis will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Alejandro Kirk has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 5.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 17.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Joey Loperfido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 43 games (+21.00 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.16 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.05

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