Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/6/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Blue Jays, with a record of 51-61, are struggling this season, while the Orioles are thriving at 67-46, showcasing one of the best records in MLB. This American League East matchup is critical, especially with the Blue Jays looking to turn their season around.

In their last contest, the Blue Jays faced a setback, while the Orioles are riding high after a strong performance. The pitching matchup features Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Grayson Rodriguez for the Orioles. Bassitt, ranked 65th among starting pitchers according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season with an 8-10 record and an ERA of 4.02. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, but his tendency to allow 5.3 hits and 2.0 walks per game could pose a problem against a potent Orioles lineup.

Conversely, Rodriguez, who ranks 46th in the league, has been a key asset for Baltimore with a 13-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.86. His ability to strike out 26.5% of batters faced could be a significant advantage against a Blue Jays offense that has the 4th least strikeouts in MLB. This dynamic may favor the Blue Jays as they attempt to capitalize on Rodriguez's high-strikeout tendencies.

The Blue Jays' offense ranks 19th overall, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 27th in home runs. In contrast, the Orioles boast the 2nd best offense, leading the league in home runs and 7th in batting average. Given the projections, the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 3.92 runs, while the Orioles are projected for 4.58 runs. This game promises to be a crucial test for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez has used his curveball 7.1% more often this season (15.3%) than he did last year (8.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 34.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 23.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 16th-best batter in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

In his previous start, Chris Bassitt allowed a colossal 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Davis Schneider is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Toronto's 13.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the game this year: #10 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.77 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.35

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