Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/5/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Blue Jays are currently having a below-average season with a record of 28-32. On the other hand, the Orioles are having a great season with a record of 39-20. The Blue Jays will need to step up their game to compete against the Orioles' strong performance.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios, who has a record of 5-4 this season. Berrios has been impressive with an ERA of 2.78, indicating excellent performance on the mound. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Albert Suarez. Suarez has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although he has a solid ERA of 1.57, his 4.00 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

According to the current odds, the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 4.23 runs, while the Orioles have an average implied team total of 3.77 runs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average. Betting markets expect a close game, giving the Blue Jays a 55% win probability with a moneyline of -135, while the Orioles have a 45% win probability with a moneyline of +115.

In their last seven games, the Blue Jays' best hitter has been George Springer, recording six hits, five runs, and one home run with a batting average of .286 and an OPS of .876. Meanwhile, the Orioles' best hitter over the same period has been Ramon Urias, with five hits, two home runs, a batting average of .556, and an OPS of 1.859.

With the Blue Jays looking to improve their season and the Orioles aiming to maintain their strong performance, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two division rivals. Stay tuned for an intense battle on the field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Generating 14.6 outs per GS this year on average, Albert Suarez places in the 18th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, there has been a decline in Austin Hays's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.45 ft/sec last year to 26.86 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Baltimore's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the majors: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

This season, Jose Berrios has added a new pitch to his repertoire (a slider), mixing it in on 33.4% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.419) implies that George Springer has had some very poor luck this year with his .281 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 98% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.73 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.79

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.