Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 9/14/2025
Two clubs headed in different directions collide on Sunday, September 14, as the Baltimore Orioles visit the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Toronto enters with the stronger season record and home-field edge, while Baltimore looks to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of their AL East rivals. Here, I break down this contest and give you my Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction for Sunday.
Our Orioles vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 1:37 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Albert Suarez vs Shane Bieber
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
- Broadcast: MASN2 and Sportsnet
Key Storylines
- Baltimore’s September burst consisted of eight wins in nine games, including a sweep of Pittsburgh. But they have dropped the first two games of this series and will look to bounce back.
- Toronto’s push at the top: recent wins over Houston and Baltimore have the Jays in strong form. The Blue Jays lead the Yankees by three games in the AL East standings and will try hold them off with another win today.
- Roster notes: Tyler O’Neill has been activated, adding right-handed thump to Baltimore’s order; Toronto has mixed and matched infield and corner bats effectively down the stretch.
Pitching outlook
- Albert Suarez will get the ball for the Orioles in this game. Suarez is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 innings of work this season. We don’t have much of a sample to go on with Suarez, but early results have been encouraging for him.
- Shane Bieber will get the start for the Blue Jays today. He has a limited 2025 sample with Toronto, yet he has excellent strike-throwing and command indicators. If his slider feel is intact, he projects to neutralize lefty and righty power alike.
Recent team streaks
- The Orioles have lost two games in a row going into the finale of this series.
- Toronto has won three straight games and will look for another key win here.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Total Bases | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 1.5 |
| Home Run | Davis Schneider | 1+ HR |
| Total Bases | Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 |
| Strikeouts | Shane Bieber | Over 6.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 6-6.
- This is the last game of the regular-season series between these two AL East teams.
- Toronto has won three straight over Baltimore overall.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 3 – Blue Jays 5
Win Probability: Orioles 41%, Blue Jays 59%
Final Thoughts
My handicap leans heavily toward Toronto. Bieber’s command profile, Toronto’s deeper contact-quality spine, and home-field advantage give the Jays a meaningful edge. I will lay the runline with Toronto here, as they should secure a series sweep and keep the pressure on the Yankees and Red Sox not to make any further mistakes that could cost them in the AL East race.
