Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 9/12/2025

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will collide on Friday night at Rogers Centre. These teams are on opposite ends of the AL East standings this year. Toronto is trying to close out a run to the AL East title as this season wears on and the Orioles have been a disappointment in last place. Here, I break down this division matchup from Camden Yards and give you my Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction.

Our Orioles vs Blue Jays Pick

• Pick: Under 7.5
• Confidence: 4/5
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4.8/5

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
• Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 7:07 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs Chris Bassitt
• Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto
• Broadcast: Sportsnet in Canada, MASN in the Baltimore market

Key Storylines

• Toronto sits atop the AL East and continues to showcase a ton of balance. Their pitching staff has been strong and their lineup might be even stronger heading down the stretch.
• Baltimore has had a disappointing year. They are in last place in the AL East standings and will look to play spoiler against their division foes in this series opener.
• The Blue Jays are at home in this game. They have been dominant at home all season long and they will look to continue their winning ways in Toronto on Friday night.

Pitching matchup

• Chris Bassitt: Toronto’s starting pitcher comes into this game with 11 wins with an ERA of 3.97. At home he has been dependable. He has been successfully mixing his cutter and sinker to generate weak contact and get through six innings with regularity.
• Trevor Rogers: The Orioles have struggled as a whole this season but you can’t blame Trevor Rogers for that. Rogers is 8-2 with a 1.51 ERA for the year and he will try to stay hot in this contest while the O’s lineup tries to do some damage of its own to provide Rogers with run support.

Recent team streaks

• Baltimore has won three games in a row. They swept the Pittsburgh Pirates in their most recent series.
• The Blue Jays won two out of three games against the Houston Astros before this series.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Orioles hold a 6-4 lead in the season series against the Blue Jays.
• Baltimore took three out of four games against the Jays in their most recent series.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Model Projection

Score Projection: Orioles 3 – Blue Jays 4

Win Probability: Orioles 36% – Blue Jays 64%

Final Thoughts

Both starting pitchers are capable of great things on any given night. Bassitt has thrown well lately and Rogers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a good chunk of this season. I think both pitchers will have their way with the opposing lineups here and that the under is the best bet for this matchup.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.