Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 3/30/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles in a critical American League East matchup on March 30, 2025. Both teams come into this game with notable storylines: the Blue Jays are struggling with a record of 1-2 this season, while the Orioles are off to a strong start at 2-1. Last time out, the Blue Jays fell to the Orioles, continuing a rough patch as they search for consistency.

Toronto's Chris Bassitt is projected to take the mound, offering a mixed bag of results. Ranked as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB, he carries a below-average reputation into this matchup. Bassitt is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings and projects to allow 2.6 earned runs, though he faces challenges with an average of 5.0 hits and 1.9 walks allowed. These figures paint a picture of a pitcher who could be vulnerable, especially considering the pressure of recent performances.

On the other hand, Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano, ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB, is slated to start. His projections reflect a shaky outing, with an average of only 4.9 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs expected. Sugano also struggles with allowing 5.8 hits and 1.3 walks, making him a target for the Blue Jays’ offense.

With a game total set at a high 9.0 runs and the Blue Jays' moneyline at -135, betting markets suggest a close contest. Toronto's implied team total is a considerable 4.76 runs, indicating confidence that they can capitalize on Sugano's struggles. With both teams trying to find their footing early in the season, this game could serve as a turning point for the Blue Jays if they can exploit their opponents’ pitching woes.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tomoyoki Sugano in the 2nd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Since the start of last season, Tyler O'Neill's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 98th percentile at 97.9 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup profiles as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.353) provides evidence that George Springer has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Toronto's 88.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in MLB: #25 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games at home (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 156 games (+16.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+6.50 Units / 72% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.