Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 8/8/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on August 8, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum in a pivotal American League East matchup. The Blue Jays, sitting at 52-62, are struggling this season, while the Orioles, with a record of 68-47, are enjoying a strong campaign. Baltimore comes into this game hoping for a second straight victory after winning their last matchup against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is projected to take the mound for Toronto, bringing a solid 9-8 record and an average ERA of 4.56 into the game. Gausman’s advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit unlucky this season, with a 4.03 xFIP indicating better performances may lie ahead. However, he faces a daunting challenge against the Orioles, who boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading in home runs with 157. Gausman’s tendency to allow fly balls could play into Baltimore's hands, amplifying their power advantage.

Dean Kremer, meanwhile, gets the nod for Baltimore, holding a less favorable 4-8 record and a 4.39 ERA. He has struggled this season, with projections hinting at a decline in performance. Kremer’s high flyball rate (40 FB%) paired with the Blue Jays' power deficiencies—ranking 27th in home runs—could mitigate some of his challenges.

Despite the Blue Jays' average offensive rank of 18th, a strong performance from their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s posted a remarkable .471 batting average over the last week, could provide a spark. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be close, and while the Orioles hold a slight edge, the Blue Jays could surprise if Gausman finds his rhythm.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.3-mph fall off from last season's 94.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.1) suggests that Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year with his 34.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Baltimore's 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average starter, Kevin Gausman has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.6 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Joey Loperfido hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.95 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+15.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+7.50 Units / 103% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.64 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.71

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