Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/20/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers gear up to host the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field on July 20, 2024, the two teams find themselves in contrasting seasons. The Rangers, with a 46-51 record, are struggling to find their footing, while the Orioles are soaring high with a 59-38 record. This American League matchup is the second game of their series, and both teams will be looking to make a statement.

On the mound, the Rangers will start Max Scherzer, who has been solid this season despite his 1-2 record. Scherzer boasts an excellent 2.96 ERA, although his 4.03 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky. Scherzer is known for his low walk rate (3.8 BB%) and high flyball rate (47 FB%), which could be a concern against the Orioles' powerful lineup, ranked 1st in MLB with 149 home runs. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate Scherzer will pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters on average.

The Orioles will counter with Grayson Rodriguez, who has been impressive with an 11-4 record and a 3.88 ERA over 17 starts. Rodriguez is a high-strikeout pitcher (26.7 K%), but he faces a Rangers offense that ranks 6th in least strikeouts. The projections suggest Rodriguez will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters.

Offensively, the Orioles have a significant edge. They rank 2nd overall in MLB and lead the league in home runs. In contrast, the Rangers' offense ranks 20th overall, with middling ranks in batting average (17th) and home runs (17th). However, the Rangers' bullpen, ranked 13th, could provide some stability late in the game, compared to the Orioles' 17th-ranked bullpen.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Rangers' moneyline at -105 and the Orioles' at -115, giving Baltimore a slight edge with a 51% implied win probability. With both teams projected to score around four runs, this game could hinge on which starter can better navigate the opposing lineup's strengths.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez has gone to his curveball 7.7% more often this year (15.9%) than he did last year (8.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore's 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in baseball: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer's 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last year's 93.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Marcus Semien has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 81.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 94 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.76 vs Texas Rangers 4.41

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