Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 7/1/2025

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles square off Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at Globe Life Field. Both clubs enter the game pursuing consistency, with both teams sitting under the .500 mark for the season and in need of some wins quickly. Here, I break this contest down and make my Orioles vs Rangers prediction from Arlington.

Our Orioles vs Rangers Pick

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers
• Date & Time: July 1, 2025 – 8:05 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Brandon Young (BAL, 0–2, 7.11 ERA) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX, 8–2, 2.08 ERA)
• Stadium: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
• Broadcast: MLB.tv

Key Storylines

• Jacob deGrom vs Brandon Young: deGrom has been dominant with 95.1 innings, a sparkling 2.08 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, and is coming off a shutout seven-inning performance vs Baltimore. Young has struggled through 12.2 innings with a 7.11 ERA.
• Bullpen usage: Texas’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.33 ERA. Baltimore’s relief corps has a 4.54 ERA, ranking 24th.
• Recent team streaks: Texas has dropped 3 of its last 4 including a 10-6 extra-innings loss Monday. Baltimore has won 3 of 4, including that comeback.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• In their last 5 meetings, Baltimore has won 3, including last night’s 10–6 extra‑innings victory.
• Home/Road Split: Texas is comfortable at home (24–19) and Baltimore struggles on the road (18–25).
• Baltimore is 6–14 vs lefties, Texas is 28–31 vs righties.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Model Projection

Score Projection: Texas 5 – Baltimore 3

Win Probability: Texas 62%, Baltimore 38%

Final Thoughts

Considering deGrom’s dominance, the bullpen disparity, and home-field advantage, Texas is the smart money play for me. Baltimore’s recent surge has been commendable, but their pitching staff isn’t built to contain the Rangers consistently. Expect Texas to bounce back with a solid effort, making the runline a savvy play.