Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 6/30/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on June 30, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their disappointing seasons. The Rangers currently sit at 41-43, while the Orioles are struggling at 36-47. This matchup marks the first game in the series, and both teams will be eager to establish momentum.

With Patrick Corbin projected to start for the Rangers, they will rely on his experience despite his struggles this season. Corbin, ranked as the 316th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a 4-7 record with a 4.24 ERA this year. While his ERA is above average, his underlying metrics suggest he may not be as effective as his ERA indicates. He’s projected to go about 5.4 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Trevor Rogers, who has shown promise with an impressive 1.62 ERA in his limited appearances this season. Though Rogers has only started three games, he has a strong Win/Loss record of 1-0. However, his 3.74 xFIP indicates that he might be due for a regression. With both pitchers being left-handed, the matchup could favor the Orioles, who will look to capitalize on their better offensive performance recently.

Despite both teams having lackluster offensive rankings, the Rangers do boast the 9th best stolen base rank in MLB, which could play a crucial role. The Rangers' projected team total is set at 4.25 runs, which might be attainable against a struggling Orioles bullpen, ranked 22nd overall. Given the close odds, this game could be a critical turning point for either team as they strive to improve their standings in a competitive American League.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given that groundball batters hold a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Trevor Rogers and his 44.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today's game going up against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gunnar Henderson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 99.5-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles bats jointly rank among the best in the league this year (5th-) when assessing their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin must realize this, because he has used his non-fastballs a lot this year: 61.3% of the time, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball bats like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Trevor Rogers.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 70 games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 29 away games (+12.03 Units / 37% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.65, Texas Rangers 4.19

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers

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