Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 7/19/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to host the Baltimore Orioles on July 19, 2024, at Globe Life Field. This American League matchup features two teams on opposite ends of the standings. The Rangers, with a record of 46-50, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles, at 58-38, are enjoying a great season and are firmly in playoff contention.

Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Rangers. Eovaldi, who has a 6-3 record and an excellent 2.97 ERA this season, has been one of the bright spots for Texas. However, his peripheral stats suggest some regression might be on the horizon. His 3.77 xERA indicates that he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Eovaldi is a high-groundball pitcher, which could be advantageous against the Orioles' powerful lineup that leads MLB with 149 home runs.

Opposing Eovaldi will be Corbin Burnes for the Orioles. Burnes has been stellar this season with a 9-4 record and a 2.43 ERA. Like Eovaldi, Burnes's underlying stats suggest he might not sustain this level of performance, as his 3.35 xFIP is notably higher than his ERA. Burnes has started 19 games this year and projects to go about 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.5 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Orioles boast the 2nd-best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their 9th-best team batting average and top-ranked home run total. In contrast, the Rangers' offense ranks 20th overall, with average rankings in batting average and home runs but a poor ranking in stolen bases.

The Rangers' bullpen is ranked 12th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, which is slightly better than their year-to-date performance. The Orioles' bullpen ranks 16th, matching their season-long performance.

The betting odds favor the Orioles, with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Rangers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. Given the Orioles' superior season and offensive firepower, they are the favorites to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grading out in the 84th percentile, Corbin Burnes compiled a 13% Swinging Strike% this year.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

As it relates to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate this year. His 38.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a unit rank near the top of Major League Baseball this year (2nd-) when assessing their 90-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Josh Smith is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+13.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.52 vs Texas Rangers 4.08

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.