Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/11/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on August 11, 2024, the stakes are palpable in this American League East showdown. The Orioles, currently in a strong position with a record of 70-48, have been on a roll, while the Rays sit at an even 58-58, struggling to find consistency this season. In their last game, the Orioles showcased their offensive prowess, continuing their solid run.

On the mound, the Rays will send Jeffrey Springs, a left-handed pitcher with an ERA of 6.23 this season. Springs has had a rough go, notching a 0-1 record in just two starts. His high walk rate of 9.5% could be a concern, especially against an Orioles lineup that is among the least patient in the league, ranking 6th in fewest walks. The projections suggest that Springs might be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP of 5.61 is lower than his current ERA, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky.

Across the diamond, the Orioles will counter with Albert Suarez, a right-hander who has been more effective this season with a 3.66 ERA and a 5-4 record. However, his xFIP of 4.63 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. Both pitchers are projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, but Springs is expected to allow more earned runs than Suarez, which could tilt the balance in favor of Baltimore.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 3rd in MLB, bolstered by power with the league's best home run total. In contrast, the Rays have struggled, ranking 22nd in offensive output and 26th in home runs. With the game total set at 8.0 runs and both teams' moneyline at -110, bettors are anticipating a close contest. However, the projections lean towards the Orioles' continued success, making them the team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has recorded 14.4 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Jeffrey Springs has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 61 of their last 102 games (+17.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 68% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.96 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.26

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