Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/7/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field on June 7, 2024. The Rays, with a record of 31-31, are having an average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 39-22 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Rays will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale. On the other hand, the Orioles will send left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin to the mound. Civale, ranked as the #103 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had an average season so far. In contrast, Irvin is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Looking at their recent performances, the Rays won their last game against the Marlins with a score of 5-3. In that game, they had a closing Moneyline price of -130, indicating a slight favorite, and an implied win probability of 54%. The Orioles, however, lost their last game against the Blue Jays with a score of 6-5. They had a closing Moneyline price of +110, suggesting a close game, and an implied win probability of 46%.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank as the #23 best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking #9 in the league, and team home runs, ranking #4. Additionally, they have the second-most stolen bases in MLB, highlighting their speed on the basepaths. On the other hand, the Orioles boast the #3 best offense in MLB, showcasing their overall talent.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Rays have the #7 best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This indicates a strong relief pitching unit. The Orioles, meanwhile, have an average bullpen, ranked #15 in the league.

In terms of individual performances, Isaac Paredes has been the Rays' best hitter this season, while Gunnar Henderson has been the standout for the Orioles. Over the last seven games, Amed Rosario has been the Rays' hottest hitter, while Ramon Urias has been on fire for the Orioles.

Based on the current odds, the Rays have a low implied team total of 3.66 runs, while the Orioles have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs. However, THE BAT X projects the Rays to score an average of 4.49 runs, compared to the Orioles' projected average of 4.37 runs. This suggests that the Rays may have an edge in this game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all SPs, Cole Irvin's fastball spin rate of 2032 rpm is in the 8th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Baltimore's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in baseball: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale has a mean projection of 15.8 outs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Harold Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 58 games (+19.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 70% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 84% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.23 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.46

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