Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their series. Tampa Bay currently sits at 40-33, enjoying an above-average season, while Baltimore struggles at 31-41, marking a disappointing year. In their last matchup, the Orioles secured a victory, and they'll look to continue that momentum.

Taj Bradley, projected to start for the Rays, has had a mixed season. Although his 4-5 record and 4.35 ERA are average, his 3.50 xERA suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Bradley's high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could be a concern against a Baltimore offense that ranks 5th in the league for least walks. The projections indicate he will pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to issue walks could be problematic if Baltimore capitalizes.

Trevor Rogers, starting for the Orioles, has only pitched once this season, boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.56 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. Rogers projects for 5.3 innings, allowing about 2.9 earned runs, but his strikeout rate is concerning at just 3.8 strikeouts per game. Facing a Rays lineup that ranks 13th in MLB offensively, Rogers will need to bring his A-game.

The Rays' offense has been solid so far this season, contributing to their winning start. Meanwhile, the Orioles, despite ranking 18th overall, have a capable lineup that can produce runs. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, bettors should expect a competitive matchup, especially given the close moneyline odds. Tampa Bay's implied team total of 4.97 runs reflects confidence in their ability to score against Rogers, while Baltimore's high implied total of 4.53 indicates they could also provide a challenge.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Trevor Rogers (45% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's curveball utilization has spiked by 5.5% from last year to this one (9% to 14.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7.6% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays grades them out as the #25 offense in the majors this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.75, Tampa Bay Rays 4.65

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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