Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 7/20/2025
The Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday afternoon. Tampa has taken the first two games of this series between AL East rivals. Baltimore will look to salvage a game from this series behind a starting pitcher who has been impressive in a small sample size in 2025. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this division matchup, including my Orioles vs Rays prediction. Trevor Rogers has dazzled this season with a 1.53 ERA in 35.1 innings of work. He’s given up just one home run but we’d like to see him do this over a larger sample size before getting too excited. Ryan Pepiot has been solid for the Rays this year. He is 6-7 with a 3.38 ERA and is averaging just under one strikeout per inning for Tampa. The Orioles bullpen is among the league’s worst. It has a 4.70 ERA and has struggled to get outs late in this weekend’s matchups with the Rays. Tampa’s bullpen is by no means elite. But it has been getting the job done when compared to the pen of the Orioles. The Orioles come into this game on a four-game losing streak. It looks like their playoff hopes are not going to improve after their slow start to the season. The Rays have won two games in a row to shake off a four-game losing streak they suffered right before the All-Star break. Trevor Rogers has been excellent this season for the Orioles. But he needs to be good for longer than a handful of games for me to fully buy into what he’s doing. Pepiot is still the more reliable arm right now, in my opinion. I’ll take the Rays to win this game by getting to Rogers at some point before taking advantage of the weak Baltimore bullpen to secure a series sweep.Our Orioles vs Rays Pick
Game Snapshot
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
Bullpen Usage
Recent Team Streaks
Best Player Props
Player Prop Junior Caminero (TB) Over 0.5 HR Trevor Rogers (BAL) Over 5.5 K Cedric Mullins (BAL) Over 1.5 TB Betting Trends & H2H
Orioles vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 3 – Rays 5 Win Probability: Baltimore 40% • Tampa Bay 60% Final Thoughts
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