Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/19/2025

The Baltimore Orioles travel to George M. Steinbrenner Field for a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 19, 2025, in what will be the fourth game of their series. Currently, the Rays hold a record of 41-33, positioning them firmly in the thick of the American League East, while the Orioles sit at 31-42, struggling to find their rhythm.

In their last clash, the Rays bested the Orioles, continuing their strong play this season. Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for Tampa Bay, comes in with a solid Win/Loss record of 6-4 and an exceptional ERA of 2.55. His performance has placed him as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, yet projections suggest he might face challenges ahead, as his xFIP of 3.41 indicates potential regression. Nonetheless, Rasmussen's low walk rate of 5.3% complements his ability to command the game against the Orioles’ lineup, which is one of the least patient in baseball.

Charlie Morton, taking the mound for Baltimore, has struggled with a 3-7 record and a troublesome ERA of 6.05. Although his xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, his overall performance has not inspired confidence, especially against a Rays offense that ranks 15th in MLB, buoyed by their 1st ranking in stolen bases.

With the Rays favored at -150, oddsmakers project a team total of 4.60 runs today. This matchup sets the stage for Tampa Bay to exploit their advantages, particularly with Rasmussen on the hill, making them a team to watch in this contest.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.09 Units / 23% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.35, Tampa Bay Rays 4.58

• Date: June 19, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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