Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/17/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on June 17, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the stakes are high for both teams. The Rays currently hold a 40-32 record, showcasing a solid season thus far, while the Orioles sit at 30-41, struggling to find their footing. Last night, the Rays continued to assert their dominance with a convincing victory over the Orioles.

On the mound, Zack Littell is projected to start for the Rays. Despite being ranked as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB, his ERA of 3.84 this season indicates he has had some success. However, his 5.40 FIP suggests he may have benefited from luck, making his performance a potential concern moving forward. Littell's average projection of 5.4 innings pitched, along with 3.1 earned runs allowed and 4.3 strikeouts, paints a picture of an average outing.

Dean Kremer will take the hill for the Orioles, and while his ERA of 4.99 is below average, projections show he could perform better than his current statistics suggest. Kremer's 4.30 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky this year, which could give him an edge against the Rays' lineup.

Offensively, the Rays rank 15th in MLB, but they lead the league with a remarkable number of stolen bases. In contrast, the Orioles rank 17th in MLB, and despite having a solid home run count, their batting average sits at a disappointing 21st.

With the Rays favored at -125, the betting markets indicate a close matchup. Both teams are looking to capitalize on their strengths, but with the Rays' overall better performance this season, they appear to have the edge heading into this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 7.2% from last season to this one (32.1% to 24.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Cedric Mullins is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (91.4 mph) below where it was last year (92.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jose Caballero has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 away games (+11.73 Units / 31% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.17, Tampa Bay Rays 4.83

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Zack Littell - Rays

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