Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/20/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 20, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Busch Stadium. This Interleague matchup brings together two teams with contrasting records this season. The Cardinals, currently struggling with a 20-26 record, are having a tough year, while the Orioles boast an impressive 29-15 record, making them one of the top teams in the league.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the mound. In his seven starts this year, Gray has achieved a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.05. Additionally, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

Opposing Gray will be right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer, who is projected to start for the Orioles. While Kremer has a decent 3.72 ERA this season, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him a below-average pitcher. His xERA and FIP suggest that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially struggle in future outings.

The Cardinals' offense, ranked 23rd in MLB, has shown some strengths in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th, respectively. However, their stolen bases rank 23rd, indicating a weakness in that area. On the other hand, the Orioles' offense ranks 7th overall, with an average ranking in team batting average and home runs. Their stolen bases also rank in the middle of the pack at 17th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cardinals have the 5th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Orioles' bullpen is ranked 23rd. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in late-game situations.

With the Cardinals' projected win probability slightly higher than their implied win probability, this game is expected to be a close one according to the current odds. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (54.1% compared to 48.3% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

As it relates to his home runs, Colton Cowser has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 17.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 3.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

In today's game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2624 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2563 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Since the start of last season, Mike Siani's 0% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be wise to expect better results for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 56% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.91 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.35

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