Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/2/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles gear up for their first game in a pivotal series on July 2, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the American League playoff race. The Mariners sport a solid 47-39 record, while the Orioles boast an impressive 53-31 mark, underscoring their status as one of the best teams this season.

The Mariners will send George Kirby to the mound. Kirby, currently ranked as the 18th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, has been stellar this season with a 3.35 ERA and a 7-5 record over 17 starts. His ability to limit walks (2.3 BB%) will be tested against an Orioles lineup that ranks 4th in the fewest walks drawn in MLB. Kirby's high-flyball tendency (38 FB%) could be a concern against Baltimore’s powerful offense, which leads MLB with 139 home runs.

Grayson Rodriguez will take the hill for the Orioles. Rodriguez is having a strong season with a 9-3 record and a 3.72 ERA over 14 starts, ranking as the 57th best starter per THE BAT X. He’ll face a Mariners offense that has struggled mightily, ranking 25th overall and dead last in batting average. However, Seattle's lineup does have some pop, ranking 12th in home runs and 11th in stolen bases.

The Mariners' bullpen, ranked 23rd, has been a weak spot, contrasting sharply with the Orioles’ bullpen, which ranks 13th. This disparity could be crucial in a close game, as betting markets suggest. The current moneyline implies a 49% win probability for Seattle and a 51% chance for Baltimore, indicating a tightly contested matchup.

J.P. Crawford has been a bright spot for the Mariners recently, hitting .278 with a .798 OPS over his last five games. Meanwhile, Heston Kjerstad has been on fire for the Orioles, batting .417 with a 1.563 OPS, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs over his last five games.

With Kirby's command and Rodriguez's solid form, along with the contrasting offensive and bullpen strengths, this game promises to be an intriguing battle. While Seattle's pitching might keep them in the game, Baltimore's potent lineup and more reliable bullpen could give them the edge.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (95.6 mph) below where it was last year (96.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Seattle's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank among the elite in the majors this year () when it comes to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that George Kirby will post an average of 17.5 outs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games (+12.15 Units / 71% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.79 vs Seattle Mariners 3.74

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