Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 6/4/2025

The Seattle Mariners will host the Baltimore Orioles on June 4, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 32-27, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Orioles sit at 23-36, struggling significantly this year. In their most recent game, the Orioles edged out the Mariners, winning 5-1 at T-Mobile Park.

On the mound, Seattle is projected to start Emerson Hancock, who has had a mixed season thus far with a 2-2 record and a troubling ERA of 5.64. Despite these numbers, his 4.33 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and may improve. Hancock's average projection today includes 5.1 innings pitched, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out around 4.3 batters. However, he also projects to allow a concerning 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks per game.

Cade Povich will take the hill for Baltimore, bringing a 1-4 record and a 5.29 ERA. His xFIP of 3.90 indicates he, too, might be due for better results. Povich's projections are similar to Hancock's, with averages of 5.2 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, and 5.3 strikeouts, but he is also expected to allow 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 12th in MLB, bolstered by a potent power game, sitting 6th in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Orioles rank 21st offensively, struggling to find consistency. Betting markets have set the Mariners' moneyline at -130, suggesting they should hold the edge in this contest. With a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, Seattle looks to capitalize on their home advantage against a struggling Baltimore side.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock's sinker rate has spiked by 7.7% from last year to this one (29.8% to 37.5%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Baltimore's #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Benjamin Williamson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.40 Units / 63% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.75, Seattle Mariners 4.29

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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