Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 6/3/2025

The Seattle Mariners host the Baltimore Orioles on June 3, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Mariners are enjoying a solid season with a record of 32-26, while the Orioles are struggling significantly at 22-36. In their last outing, the Mariners showcased their offensive prowess, taking advantage of a weak pitching performance from the opposition to secure a decisive victory.

George Kirby is projected to take the mound for Seattle. Despite being ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Kirby has had a rough start to the season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an alarming ERA of 11.42. However, his 4.45 xFIP suggests he has faced some unfortunate luck, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, Tomoyuki Sugano will pitch for Baltimore, boasting a more favorable record of 4-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.23. Yet, his xFIP of 4.36 hints at some good fortune thus far, suggesting he might not maintain this level of performance moving forward.

From an offensive perspective, the Mariners rank 11th best in MLB, although their batting average at 22nd leaves room for improvement. They excel in power, ranking 6th in home runs, which could be a significant factor against Sugano, who struggles with long balls. The Orioles, meanwhile, sit at 23rd in both overall offense and batting average, with their best hitter recently showing signs of life, but the overall lineup remains inconsistent.

With the Mariners favored at -160 and an implied team total of 4.13 runs, they look to capitalize on their current form and the Orioles' struggles. Given the matchup of a high-walk offense against a low-walk pitcher, Seattle has the potential to exploit Sugano’s control, creating opportunities to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tomoyuki Sugano must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 71.8% of the time, placing in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Coby Mayo tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like George Kirby.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

J.P. Crawford is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.7, Seattle Mariners 4.38

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • George Kirby - Mariners

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